El Nino has arrived, Monsoon rainfall may be affected
New Delhi, June 13: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Nino, a natural climatic pattern which has been a major factor for weaker Monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells and drought.
Monsoon rainfall is extremely crucial for agriculture and water supplies in many parts of the country.
The IMD has warned that El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the ongoing Southwest Monsoon season.
In its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, the government weather forecaster has said that warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold required for El Nino conditions.
More importantly, the atmosphere has also responded to the ocean warming, indicating that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is now firmly in an El Nino state.
The IMD noted that strong positive temperature anomalies are also present beneath the ocean surface across large parts of the equatorial Pacific, a signal that warmer waters are likely to continue surfacing and reinforce the event in the coming months.
Forecasts indicate that positive sea surface temperature anomalies will persist across the central Pacific during June-August and are expected to expand and strengthen across both the central and eastern Pacific from July onwards.
The latest model guidance points to moderate to strong El Nino conditions during much of the Southwest Monsoon season.
However, the IMD emphasised that El Nino is not the sole factor influencing India’s monsoon.
The department noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean and are likely to continue through the monsoon season.
A neutral IOD means it is unlikely to significantly amplify or offset El Nino’s effects this year.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA), which officially declared the onset of El Nino on June 11, highlighted a potential silver lining for India, saying a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could develop around July and help offset some of the adverse impacts of what could become a super El Nino on the country’s monsoon rainfall. (BVI)
