EXIM Bank forecasts 4.5% growth in India’s merchandise exports, 5.2% in non-oil exports
New Delhi, Aug 14 (BVI) Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has forecast that India’s total merchandise exports would be to the tune of US$ 108.1 billion by registering a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.5%.
Non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 92.1 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 5.2%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2026, according to a press statement issued by the EXIM Bank.
Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 2.3%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2026, it said.
Growth in India’s exports could be as a result of base effect along with expected continued buoyancy in manufacturing activity supported by increased capacity utilization and congenial financial conditions, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations with several countries, and an expansionary monetary policy in India, the statement said.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of higher tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty affecting global demand, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions, it said.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser to the Department of Economic and Policy Research in the Reserve Bank of India, Professor Saikat Sinha Roy of the Department of Economics in Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director in Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram. (BVI)
