India records 15% shortfall in Monsoon rainfall, weakest season in 17 years
New Delhi, Sept 18: India is on course to record its weakest monsoon in 17 years, with cumulative rainfall 15 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA) as the season enters its withdrawal phase.
The current deficit marks the sharpest shortfall since 2009, when rainfall was 18 per cent below normal.
According to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) report, the monsoon has started withdrawing from West Rajasthan.
The season has so far delivered 85 per cent of the LPA rainfall, compared with 108 per cent recorded in recent years.
The rainfall shortfall has been recorded across all four major geographical regions, although its intensity varies considerably. The southern peninsula has reported the largest deficiency at 28 per cent, followed by east and northeast India at 25 per cent.
Northwest India has recorded a 10 per cent rainfall deficit, while central India has reported a comparatively smaller shortfall of 6 per cent. The broad-based deficit highlights the uneven performance of the monsoon across the country during the current season.
The monsoon began with a 40 per cent rainfall deficiency by June 30, before the gap narrowed significantly to 13 per cent by July 30. However, the deficit widened again to 14 per cent by the end of August and reached 15 per cent by 17 September.
At the state level, 18 states covering nearly 55 per cent of India’s geographical area have received normal rainfall. Meanwhile, 16 states accounting for about 43 per cent of the country’s area have recorded deficient rainfall, while only one state covering 2 per cent of the area has received excess rainfall.
The weaker rainfall pattern is also raising concerns for agriculture, although sowing coverage remains relatively close to normal.
The monsoon weakness is being compounded by a severe El Nino, which has breached the temperature-rise threshold of 2 degrees Celsius. The weather pattern began in June and is expected to peak around November and December before continuing into early 2027.
The prolonged El Nino conditions could potentially result in a milder winter, extending the weather-related risks beyond the monsoon season. The combination of rainfall deficiency and elevated temperatures could keep pressure on agriculture and other weather-sensitive activities.
The impact of adverse weather conditions is also being reflected in global agricultural concerns. A United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) report has warned that maize, rice and other rain-fed crops are at risk from weather disruptions.
The World Food Programme has projected that El Nino could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of 2027.
Across 45 countries, the total population facing acute hunger could consequently rise from 225 million to 274 million, pointing to wider food security risks from prolonged weather disruptions.
